Post Election Market Outlook 11/05/24

Another significant factor behind the current positioning is the difference in risk appetite between US and European equities. The +4.0 bullish positioning in the S&P contrasts sharply with a neutral stance in Eurostoxx (local://openPair?pair_Id=175).

This trend is also reflected in European ETF flows, where inflows to US equities have been robust over the last couple of months, while European equities have seen net inflows stagnate.

Meanwhile, Nasdaq (local://openPair?pair_Id=20) flows continue to be bullish as well, with rising net long positions maintained over the past four weeks.

“All this indicates continued confidence in US equities by investors, something which is also reflected in ETF flows which have been very strong in October,” strategists added.

They further highlight that fluctuations in bullish positioning do not appear linked to any anticipated election outcome, specifically a Trump victory. Citi observes no signs of large-scale “Trump trades” in the futures market—positions that would align with a major post-election rally, as was seen in 2016.

Instead, inflation, jobs data, and potential rate cuts are likely more influential drivers of bullish US positioning, even as the election event introduces some near-term uncertainty.

In Asia-Pacific markets, there is no evidence of strong shifts in positioning tied to the US election, with investors showing moderate bullishness

 in China and Japan and a slightly bearish outlook on Korea.

Thank you. The US inflows vs Europe are 👍